As usual, smart observations from Horace.

IP-based messaging (read: iMessage, Whatsapp, Skype, etc) are on the rise, cannibalising SMS. I wonder how carriers feel about that.

How could I not link to this? (For those of you still keeping track, Horace has now bitten his fingernails completely off.)

Asymco’s estimate for iPhones sold: 55.5 million.

Actual iPhones sold: 47.8 million.

Close, but no cigar. I expect Horace to write a follow-up article soon, explaining his thoughts about the discrepancy.

Not sure why I haven’t linked to this before now, but Horace Dediu (who is still biting his nails, for those keeping track) has written a fascinating article explaining how the Surface fits into Microsoft’s plan for the future.

In short, tablets are where the growth is happening in larger-than-phone computing — and Microsoft has little presence there. In traditional PC sales, Microsoft receives around $50 for a license of Windows, and $67 for a license of Office.

The surface, with its Apple-esque 30%+ margins, is a way for Microsoft to keep revenue and profit high, without manufacturers like Asus and Dell paying $50 a pop for a Windows license… Manufacturers who could easily switch to making hardware for Android — which lacks this hefty fee. Sometimes, Google will even pay manufacturers to use Android.

It seems that Android is doing more harm to Microsoft than I originally realised — Google might be going after third party device manufacturers. Smart.

When I read this, a few things struck me. Firstly, that’s a lot of iPhones.

Second, Horace doesn’t usually preface estimates with quite this many caveats:

So I’m very uncomfortable with my forecast and find it hard to defend this quarter. I considered not publishing one at all because it gives too much confidence when none is warranted.

We may be surprised when the real numbers come out. Horace’ll be biting his nails.

As ever, some great analysis of data by Horace:

Samsung’s success is dependent on having ridden on the back of Android. [...] Meanwhile, indications are that “mobile” is causing a contraction in Google’s margins.

I think the story here isn't that Samsung is making more money from Android than Google is, but instead that as Google enters the mobile space further, their margins decrease. This seems counterintuitive and can't be a good sign for the company.

We know that Google makes significantly more money from iOS users than from Android users. That fact, coupled with this new revelation, seems to indicate an unpredictable and worrying future for the platform.

As Horace concludes:

If nothing else, Android has created a very interesting industry.

Very interesting indeed.