When I read this, a few things struck me. Firstly, that’s a lot of iPhones.

Second, Horace doesn’t usually preface estimates with quite this many caveats:

So I’m very uncomfortable with my forecast and find it hard to defend this quarter. I considered not publishing one at all because it gives too much confidence when none is warranted.

We may be surprised when the real numbers come out. Horace’ll be biting his nails.